PRODUCT PRICE FORECAST FOR BANANA GROWERS IN THE STATE OF COLIMA, MEXICO

Resumen

Banana (Musa spp.) is the fourth most important food in the world, after corn, beans, and rice. It contributes to food security in several countries, and in Mexico, it is the most cultivated tropical fruit. The goal of this work was to project real banana prices for the next 10 years using a non-homogeneous linear second-order difference equation of moving equilibrium, which would serve as a basis for the design of marketing strategies by banana organizations in the state of Colima, Mexico. An autoregressive econometric model was built with real monthly banana prices for the period from January 2014 to February 2020. It was identified that the behavior of the banana market in the state of Colima corresponds to a complex structure, with a cyclical behavior and a duration of nine months. This market tends to converge; therefore, it will reach equilibrium and continue to grow.