ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC CHANGES ON WHEAT PRODUCTION IN SAUDI ARABIA: AN APPLICATION OF THE INTERRUPTED TIME SERIES MODEL

Resumen

This research examines how Policy 335, which reduced governmental subsidies for wheat cultivation, affected wheat production patterns in Saudi Arabia. The Interrupted Time Series (ITS) methodology was used to assess both the immediate and long-term effects of this policy from 1990 to 2023. The analysis shows an instant reduction in wheat output following policy enactment, although this effect was not statistically significant at the 5 % threshold. In subsequent years, a substantial long-term production decline was documented, with the reduction in governmental assistance identified as the principal driver of this downward trend. Additional economic variables, including producer pricing and pesticide expenditures, showed no meaningful impact on wheat output. In contrast, increased fertilizer utilization helped offset the policy’s adverse effects, emphasizing the importance of resource optimization. The outcomes indicate that governmental assistance plays a vital role in maintaining stability in agricultural production. The evidence highlights the necessity for effective resource management and environmentally sustainable farming approaches, especially in resource-limited settings such as Saudi Arabia, to reduce dependence on wheat imports. Continuous assessment and flexible policy adjustments are essential for ensuring long-term viability and food security amid evolving economic and environmental conditions.