METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES PREDICTION THROUGH ARIMA MODELS

Authors

  • G. Javier Aguado Rodríguez
  • Abel Quevedo Nolasco
  • Martiniano Castro Popoca
  • Ramón Arteaga Ramírez
  • M. Alberto Vázquez Peña
  • B. Patricia Zamora Morales

Keywords:

Prediction, R Statistics, real time.

Abstract

Meteorological variables prediction is applied in agriculture to predict water uptake of plants for planning irrigation depths. In the present study a program was made for the prediction of temperature, solar radiation, reference evapotranspiration and relative humidity by means of autoregressive integrated mobile media models. The effectiveness of the program was tested for prediction under high and low rainfall conditions. The prediction periods evaluated were in March and in June, 2013, in three automatic meteorological stations (EMAS) of the National Meteorological Service (SMN). The analysis of results indicated that the prediction of meteorological variables with ARIMA models was better than with persistent prediction in the period with low rainfall conditions (March).   

Additional Files

Published

06-03-2021

Issue

Vol. 50 No. 1 (2016): 1 de enero - 15 de febrero 2016

Section

Water-Soils-Climate

License

Agrociencia is published every 45 days, in an English format, and it is edited by the Colegio de Postgraduados. Mexico-Texcoco highway Km. 36.5, Montecillo, Texcoco, Estado de México, CP 56264, Telephone (52) 5959284427. www.colpos.mx. Editor-in-Chief: Dr. Fernando Carlos Gómez Merino. Rights Reserved for Exclusive Use: 04-2021-031913431800-203, e-ISSN: 2521-9766, granted by the National Institute for Author Right.