A METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH TO QUANTIFYING FLOOD RISK IN AGRICULTURAL AREAS: MAIZE CROP

Abstract

The agricultural sector is vulnerable to flooding, as it causes damage to soil, crops, and hydro-agricultural infrastructure, thereby limiting production. Quantifying and delineating flood-prone areas is important, as food security is at stake. This study was conducted in Irrigation District (ID) 008 Metztitlán, Mexico, which experiences recurrent flooding that affects the production system and hydro-agricultural infrastructure. The objective of this study was to develop and apply a methodology to assess flood risk in agricultural areas focused on maize cultivation. A basic hydrological and hydraulic model was developed for the proposed methodological framework for agricultural risk analysis, considering three flood factors that affect crops: A) duration, B) depth, C) velocity, and the phenological stage of growth. Based on these factors, parameters were proposed for assessing hazard, vulnerability, and exposure value to calculate risk in monetary terms using map algebra. The scenario analyzed was for a 20-year return period, determining that 94.7 % of the total area of the ID presents some degree of risk. The proposed methodology allowed for the generation of risk maps. Delineating risk zones can aid decision-making to mitigate flood damage in the agricultural